Oregon’s tax revenues have continued to outstrip state economists’ predictions, with nearly $1.9 billion more in tax receipts now expected in the current budget cycle that ends in June.
The surge in anticipated tax receipts will also likely trigger a big increase in the state’s unique “kicker” tax rebate that taxpayers would receive when they file their taxes next year: $5.5 billion, up from a predicted kicker of $3.9 billion at the last forecast just three months ago, according to economists’ presentation to state lawmakers on Wednesday.
Economists have been warning for months that Oregon could enter a mild recession sometime this year. The higher-than-expected tax receipts could clear the way for the Democratically controlled Legislature to boost spending in the next two-year budget, which they have until June 25 to pass.
In March, Ways and Means Committee co-chairs Sen. Elizabeth Steiner and Rep. Tawna Sanchez, both Democrats from Portland, proposed a budget that would increase state spending moderately from the current level, $29.2 billion, to $30.4 billion for 2023-2025. However, they noted the state budget has grown significantly in recent years, boosted by windfall revenues and federal pandemic funding.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
— Hillary Borrud; hborrud@oregonian.com; 503-294-4034; @hborrud