With two games remaining in the season, the Portland Trail Blazers are two losses away from finishing with the fifth-worst record in the NBA.
Some fine tanking indeed.
Finishing 33-49 would give the Blazers the most losses they have endured since, well, last season when they finished 27-55 after taking a swan dive on the season much earlier than they did this time around.
The Blazers absolutely have this process down to a science. But now they are hoping that the math involved flows more favorably in their direction in the NBA’s draft lottery, to be held May 16 in Chicago.
The prize to be had at the top of the 2023 NBA draft is 7-foot-4 marvel Victor Wembanyama, 19, who appears to be a combination of Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid.
The fifth position in the draft lottery would give the Blazers a 10.5% chance of landing the top pick, while the sixth position will have a 9% chance.
Of course, the Blazers could fall back as well. Last season’s plug-pulling on the season resulted in the Blazers finishing with the sixth-worst record and thus sixth-best odds to land the No. 1 overall pick. However, the Blazers actually fell back a slot when Sacramento jumped from the seventh slot to the No. 4 pick. At No. 7, the Blazers selected Shaedon Sharpe, who appears destined for stardom.
Should the Blazers land a similar talent in the middle of the top 10, great. Or, maybe they package that pick in a trade for a proven star. Many options exist. But maybe nothing realistic would be more franchise-changing than landing the top pick in this draft.
Here is a look at the scenarios in play for that to happen:
1. The Blazers lose out and they finish with the fifth-worst record. They play their final two games this weekend, starting Saturday at the LA Clippers (42-38) and concluding Sunday at home against the Golden State Warriors (42-38).
As fate would have it, both opponents enter Friday tied for fifth place in the Western Conference and just a game ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers (41-38) and New Orleans Pelicans (41-38), tied for sixth.
So, both the Clippers and Warriors should be highly motivated to defeat the Blazers.
2. Should the Blazers somehow pull off an upset — as they did Sunday at Minnesota and almost did Tuesday at Memphis — then the situation becomes muddied. Directly behind the Blazers are Orlando, Washington and Indiana, all tied for the sixth-worst record at 34-46.
Should the Blazers win once, then they would run the risk of falling into a four-way tie for the fifth-worst record should the Magic, Pacers and Wizards all lose out.
Should the Blazers win twice (highly unlikely), they could fall all the way back to the No. 8 slot should all of the aforementioned teams lose out.
Indiana plays Detroit (16-64) and at New York (47-33). The Knicks are locked into the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Orlando plays at Brooklyn (44-36) and at Miami (43-37), separated by one game for sixth place in the East.
Washington hosts Miami and then Houston (20-60).
3. The odds of the Blazers not finishing with the fifth-worst record are minuscule. However, even with that lottery slot, the Blazers could still draft as low as No. 9.
Should they remain with the fifth-best lottery odds, The Blazers would actually have a 10.5% chance at No. 1 or at No. 2, a 10.6% chance at No. 3 and a 10.5% chance at moving up a spot to No. 4.
The Blazers also would have a 19.6% chance of falling to No. 6, a 26.7% chance of falling to No. 7, an 8.7% chance of falling to No. 8 and a 0.6% chance of landing at No. 9.
All told, the Blazers would have a 31.6% chance of moving into the top three and a 55.6% chance of falling back.
— Aaron Fentress | afentress@Oregonian.com | @AaronJFentress (Twitter), @AaronJFentress (Instagram), @AaronFentress (Facebook). Subscribe to Oregonian/OregonLive newsletters and podcasts
