The Oregonian/OregonLive is taking a player-by-player look at the Portland Trail Blazers roster heading into the offseason, assessing their value both with Damian Lillard and without him in the event the superstar were traded to trigger a rebuild.
Prior posts: Shaedon Sharpe; Anfernee Simons; Jerami Grant; Jusuf Nurkic; Matisse Thybulle; Nassir Little; Drew Eubanks; Trendon Watford; Justise Winslow; Cam Reddish; Jabari Walker; Keon Johnson; Kevin Knox II; John Butler Jr.; Ibou Badji; Jeenathan Williams; Skylar Mays.
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Height, position, age: 6-foot-2, point guard, 32.
Contract status: Lillard, who signed a two-year extension last summer, has four years and $216 million remaining on his deal. He will make $45.6 million next season.
2022-23 contributions: After missing most of last season following core muscle surgery, Lillard returned on a mission to prove he was still an elite guard. He exceeded most expectations by averaging a career-high 32.2 points per game, third in the NBA.
Lillard averaged 7.3 assists and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.1% on threes.
He entered the season owning the franchise record for scoring in a single game (61, accomplished twice) and came close to tying the record with 60 points on Jan. 25, 2023 against Utah. On Feb. 26 against Houston, Lillard set a new record with 71 points.
Lillard’s efforts earned him a seventh All-Star game invite and he was named All-NBA (third team) for the seventh time.
Contending with Lillard: The Blazers reached the playoffs eight consecutive seasons with Lillard from 2013-2021 but have missed the postseason two consecutive seasons mainly due to injuries. However, issues with size, depth and experience have also held back the team.
With Lillard turning 33 this summer, the Blazers have seemingly reached the point where they must either make the roster moves necessary to contend around consider trading Lillard, with his blessing, of course.
Lillard stated recently that should the Blazers fail to upgrade the roster a conversation must take place regarding his future with the franchise.
So, what will it take to put the team over the top? The Blazers likely must trade some combination of Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe and their 2023 lottery pick, plus the first-round pick acquired from the New York Knicks in the Josh Hart trade to acquire at least one true star, or two high-quality players that would make the Blazers contenders.
The time is now. There is no truly dominant team in the NBA, let alone the Western Conference. LeBron James, 38, Kevin Durant, 34 and Stephen Curry, 35, are aging and the LA Clippers duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard can’t seem to stay healthy.
So, a couple of big moves and a couple of crafty veteran signings could be enough to make Lillard believe he could finally contend in Portland.
Rebuilding without Lillard: Should the Blazers fail to pull off what must amount to arguably the greatest offseason in franchise history, then it could be time to move on from the Lillard era.
In this scenario, Lillard would have to decide if he is cool finishing his career in Portland knowing he might never have a legitimate shot at contending. Or would he desire a trade to a contender before his powers as an elite guard begin to wane?
Trading Lillard could be a win-win for both sides. Lillard would get a shot at winning a championship while the Blazers could acquire assets to go along with their own current draft picks, Simons and Sharpe.
Plus, who is to say that in a few years, Lillard, with a championship ring in place, couldn’t return to the Blazers as the missing veteran leader to help a young roster get over the top?
That would be a storybook ending to be sure.
Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups (center) chats with guards Anfernee Simons (left) and Damian Lillard (right) during a break of an NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon on Friday, Oct. 21, 2022.Sean Meagher/The Oregonian
Trade value: The hiccup in trading Lillard would be finding the perfect fit. Lillard must land with a team capable of contending which means the Blazers would not be able to strip that team of enough NBA talent to equal fair value for Lillard. A glut of picks and maybe one good young player with potential might be the best the Blazers could do.
The centerpiece of the trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns was forward Mikal Bridges. The Blazers would certainly be happy with that caliber of player coming back along with a bushel of first-round picks.
But don’t expect a current All-Star to swap teams with Lillard.
Likelihood to return: Blazers general manager Joe Cronin said at the trade deadline that the franchise was preparing to push all of its chips in on a major trade this offseason to put pieces around.
That will likely require overpaying, which could ultimately hurt down the line.
However, such a dramatic move would all be worth it should Lillard find himself with a legitimate four-year window to produce a championship.
2023-24 outlook: Lillard demonstrated this season that he remains elite. He showed zero signs of slowing down and Cronin has stated that he believes Lillard’s talents will age well.
If Lillard does indeed have four All-Star caliber years left in his body, then going all in makes sense. After all, there is no guaranteed that Simons and Sharpe will ever contend with or without the player selected with the 2023 lottery pick.
Speaking of which, the draft lottery is Tuesday in Chicago. Should the Blazers land the No. 1 pick and the opportunity to select prized prospect, Victor Wembanyama, that could change everything.
Would the Blazers trade that pick for a current star? Would they simply expect Lillard to accept playing with the 19-year-old potential star even though he has already stated that he isn’t interested in playing with more young players? Could all of the above simply cause the Blazers to seek to trade Lillard and build around Wembanyama, Sharpe and Simons?
Thing could become complicated really quickly.
But let’s assume that the Blazers don’t land the top pick (they have a 10.5% chance to do so) and seek to move that pick then end up with, which has been the stated goal.
Then the Blazers should absolutely be in position to add a star or two and provide Lillard what he has been asking for since LaMarcus Aldridge left as a free agent in 2015.
The man simply wants an opportunity. And if Cronin’s words have been true, that opportunity is on the horizon.
— Aaron Fentress | afentress@Oregonian.com | @AaronJFentress (Twitter), @AaronJFentress (Instagram), @AaronFentress (Facebook). Subscribe to Oregonian/OregonLive newsletters and podcasts
